EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave iv Pullback Targets 1.1439–1.1449 Before Wave v Advance
EUR/USD is presenting one of the clearest Wave iv entry setups in the current forex landscape. After a complex corrective triangle resolved upward and launched a fresh bullish impulse, Wave (C)/④ peaked near 1.1483 — and the Wave iv corrective pullback is now underway toward the 0.618–0.5 Fibonacci support zone at 1.14390–1.14493. Once Wave iv completes in this zone, Wave v — the final bullish leg of the current sequence — is the structural move that follows. Here is the complete Elliott Wave breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is EUR/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The EUR/USD H4 Elliott Wave structure for July 2026 is built on a foundation of complex multi-degree wave interactions that have been developing since May 2026. Understanding the full context requires tracing the sequence from its origin.
Large-Scale Bearish Impulse — The Prior Structure:
From the (ii)/c high near 1.1788 in early May 2026, a large-scale bearish impulse unfolded with clearly labeled internal waves:
Wave i: The initial bearish leg lower from the 1.1788 high
Wave ii: A corrective bounce, partially recovering the Wave i decline
Wave iii: The most powerful and extended bearish wave of the sequence, subdividing internally through multiple sub-degrees. Inside Wave iii, a significant Wave (iv) correction developed as an (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) contracting triangle — with the (C) high visible on the chart and the (D)-(E) completing the triangle structure. After the triangle, the v/(iii) terminal thrust completed the larger Wave iii structure at approximately 1.1472 (aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.14721) in mid-June 2026.
Following Wave iii completion, an a-b correction temporarily bounced price before the sequence continued.
Wave iii / Low Point Near 1.1325:
The larger iii wave terminal low reached approximately 1.1325 — labeled as iii on the EWPlans chart in late June/early July 2026. This level now serves as the critical structural low and the hard support floor for the current corrective structure.
Complex Corrective Recovery — Triangle (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E):
From the 1.1325 structural low, EUR/USD entered a complex corrective recovery phase. A second contracting triangle developed with clearly labeled (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) legs:
(A) wave: Rallied from the 1.1325 low toward approximately 1.1472 (the prior 0.5 Fibonacci level)
(B) wave: Corrected back, with the (B) label visible on the chart
(C) wave: Extended the triangle's upper boundary
(D) wave: The corrective leg within the triangle
(E) wave: The terminal wave of the triangle, completing near the lower boundary
This contracting triangle is the classic Elliott Wave Wave (iv) pattern at the larger degree — a consolidation structure that precedes the next directional impulse. The resolution of the (E) wave and the subsequent upside breakout from the triangle triggered the new bullish impulse currently developing.
New Bullish Impulse — NOW DEVELOPING:
Following the triangle breakout, a fresh bullish impulse sequence launched:
Wave i of the new sequence: The initial thrust from the triangle breakout, labeled as i on the EWPlans chart, rallying from the triangle's lower boundary toward approximately 1.1550–1.1580.
Wave ii: The corrective retracement from the Wave i high, pulling EUR/USD back before the most powerful advance of the new sequence.
Wave (iv) — c peak / ④: The current rally high labeled (iv)/c/④ near 1.1483 on the EWPlans chart represents the completion of the most recent bullish advance sub-wave. This peak at 1.1483 aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.14721 from the larger structure — a natural resistance zone.
Wave iv — NOW ACTIVE: The corrective pullback from the (C)/④ high near 1.1483 is now underway. Current price at 1.14107 represents the early-to-intermediate stage of this Wave iv correction. The Elliott Wave structure identifies two key Fibonacci support levels for Wave iv completion:
0.618 Fibonacci retracement → 1.14493 — first structural support reference
0.5 Fibonacci retracement → 1.14390 — deeper support / primary Wave iv target
Wave v — NEXT: Once Wave iv finds support in the 1.14390–1.14493 zone and the corrective structure exhausts, Wave v — the final bullish leg — is projected to drive EUR/USD toward higher levels, completing the current impulsive sequence from the triangle breakout.
The Double Triangle Structure — What It Tells Us
The appearance of two contracting triangle structures in the EUR/USD chart — the larger (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) within the prior bearish Wave iii, and the subsequent (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) corrective triangle from the 1.1325 low — is a significant structural feature worth specific attention.
In Elliott Wave theory, contracting triangles are among the most reliable continuation or terminal patterns. Key observations:
1. Both triangles resolved directionally as expected. The first (internal iii) triangle resolved lower in a bearish thrust. The second (corrective) triangle resolved upward — consistent with a corrective structure that sets up the resumption of the prior directional move or a new counter-trend impulse.
2. Triangle (E) waves define the terminal point. In both cases, the (E) wave completing within the triangle's converging trendlines provided the precise trigger point for the subsequent thrust. The (E) completion on the second triangle near 1.1380 triggered the upside breakout that launched the current bullish sequence.
3. The 0.5 Fibonacci alignment is structurally significant. The (A) wave of the corrective triangle reaching exactly the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.14721 — and the subsequent (C)/④ peak near 1.1483 — demonstrates the Fibonacci precision embedded in this wave structure. This level has been tested multiple times, confirming its structural significance.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
The primary Elliott Wave scenario for EUR/USD unfolds in two phases:
Phase 1 (Current — Wave iv correction): Price continues its pullback from the 1.1483 (C)/④ high toward the structural Fibonacci support zone:
Primary target: 1.14390–1.14493 (0.5–0.618 Fibonacci)
Price behavior — reversal candles, momentum divergence, volume patterns — in this zone will signal Wave iv completion
The 1.13245 structural low is the hard invalidation floor
Phase 2 (After Wave iv — Wave v launch): Once Wave iv exhausts in the 1.1439–1.1449 zone, Wave v drives the final bullish leg of the current sequence toward higher targets. Wave v targets will be measured from the Wave iv low using standard Fibonacci projections — pointing toward levels above 1.1483 and potentially toward the 1.1550–1.1600+ range depending on wave equality and extension measurements.
Key structural reference points:
1.17879: Large-scale (ii)/c resistance — major upper boundary
1.16691: Intermediate structural resistance
1.16220: Near-term resistance above current price
1.14825: (C)/④ high — immediate resistance
1.14107: Current price — Wave iv active
1.14493: 0.618 Fibonacci — Wave iv primary support
1.14390: 0.5 Fibonacci — Wave iv deeper support
1.13245: Structural low / invalidation floor
Strategic Perspective for Traders
The EUR/USD H4 Elliott Wave setup at this moment provides a clear and actionable structural framework:
1. The 1.14390–1.14493 zone is the high-quality structural entry region. The confluence of the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels in the 1.1439–1.1449 range creates a double Fibonacci support zone for Wave iv. This type of Fibonacci confluence — where two key retracement levels are clustered within a tight range — is among the highest-quality entry reference zones in Elliott Wave analysis.
2. Wave iv timing and depth are defined by the prior wave structure. The Wave iv correction depth is bounded by the Fibonacci retracements of the Wave iii advance. With the 0.5 and 0.618 levels at 1.14390 and 1.14493 respectively, traders have a well-defined zone — not a point — for Wave iv completion monitoring.
3. The 1.13245 structural low provides clear risk context. For any bullish positioning based on the Wave v thesis, the 1.13245 iii-wave structural low represents the ultimate structural invalidation reference. A decisive H4 close below this level would require full reassessment of the current wave count.
4. The double triangle structure adds analytical confidence. The appearance of two precisely-formed contracting triangles in sequence — both resolving as expected — adds significant structural confidence to the current wave reading. When multiple Elliott Wave patterns within a single chart resolve correctly in succession, the overall wave count carries elevated reliability.
5. ECB policy and Fed communications are the primary macro catalysts. EUR/USD remains acutely sensitive to divergence in ECB and Fed policy signals. Any surprise hawkish ECB communication could shorten Wave iv and accelerate the Wave v launch. Conversely, stronger-than-expected US data or hawkish Fed rhetoric could extend Wave iv below the 0.5 Fibonacci at 1.14390, testing the 1.13800–1.14000 zone.
Conclusion — Follow EUR/USD's Wave Structure With EWPlans
EUR/USD is at a structurally precise moment. The complex triangle has resolved, the new bullish impulse is developing, Wave iv is pulling back toward the 1.14390–1.14493 Fibonacci support zone, and Wave v is the structural move that follows once the correction completes. The Elliott Wave framework delivers the structural map — and EWPlans delivers that map for EUR/USD and 38 other instruments every single day.
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