GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave 4 Triangle Completes at 1.3261 — Wave 5 Targets 1.3140
GBP/USD has completed a textbook Wave 4 contracting triangle, and Wave 5 is now breaking lower toward the structural target that would complete the broader A-B-C correction from the 1.3676 high. Here is the complete breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is GBP/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The x/(C)/5 High — 1.36757:
GBP/USD peaked at the major x/(C)/5 high near 1.36757, marking the terminal of the prior bullish impulse.
The A-B-C Correction:
A wave: Declined to approximately 1.3474
B wave: Rallied to approximately 1.3568
C wave: Developed internally as a five-wave structure:
Wave 1: ≈1.3261
Wave 2: ≈1.3568
Wave 3: Sharp decline to ≈1.3204
Wave 4: A textbook A-B-C-D-E contracting triangle, completing near 1.3261
Wave 5 — NOW ACTIVE: Breaking lower from the triangle
Current price at 1.32487 reflects this breakout. The red arrow on the EWPlans chart maps the decline toward 1.31402.
Why the Contracting Triangle Matters
A contracting triangle forming correctly in the Wave 4 position is one of the most reliable pre-fifth-wave confirmations in Elliott Wave analysis — it signals that only Wave 5 remains before the correction completes.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
Current Phase — Wave 5 declining toward 1.3140:
GBP/USD declines from current price 1.32487 toward 1.31402 — the structural target that completes the entire A-B-C correction from 1.3676.
Key structural reference points:
1.36757: x/(C)/5 high — major resistance
1.35679: B wave reference
1.32614: Triangle upper boundary — resistance
1.32487: Current price
1.32042: Triangle lower boundary
1.31402: Wave 5 primary target
Strategic Perspective for Traders
1. The 1.32614 level is the key invalidation reference. A sustained close above it would suggest the triangle is extending rather than resolving lower.
2. DXY’s own bullish structure continues to pressure GBP/USD. The dollar’s advance remains a headwind.
3. BoE policy signals remain the primary GBP-specific variable that could accelerate or slow this decline.
Conclusion — Follow GBP/USD’s Wave Structure With EWPlans
GBP/USD’s Wave 4 triangle has completed, and Wave 5 is breaking lower toward 1.3140 to complete the broader correction from 1.3676.
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