NI225 Elliott Wave Analysis: Nikkei Wave (v) Completes at 3.618 Fibonacci — Correction Targets 61,695 and 59,067
The Japan 225 Index has just delivered one of the most structurally complete Elliott Wave impulse sequences visible in global equity markets right now — and its completion at the 3.618 Fibonacci extension near 72,677 is sending a clear structural signal. The five-wave bullish impulse from the March 2026 IV-wave low is finished, a major correction is underway with current price at 67,743, and the Elliott Wave targets of 61,695 and 59,067 define the structural roadmap for Nikkei into August 2026. Here is the complete breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is NI225 Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The NI225 H4 Elliott Wave picture for 2026 tells a remarkably structured story across multiple wave degrees. The foundation begins in late 2025 with the large-scale impulse sequence that developed through the key structural levels visible on the chart.
Large-Scale I-II-III-IV-V Sequence:
From the November 2025 base, a multi-month bullish impulse unfolded at the primary degree:
Wave ①: Rallied from the structural base, establishing the first directional leg
Wave ②: The corrective retracement, pulling back to the ii low visible in December 2025 on the far left of the chart
Wave ③: The most powerful primary wave, driving NI225 through the ③ zone visible in January–February 2026
Wave IV — The Structural Foundation:
Wave IV formed as a classic A-B-C zigzag correction in March 2026:
A wave: The initial corrective decline from the III high
B wave: A counter-trend rally visible within the corrective structure, internally showing its own sub-wave development
C/IV wave: The terminal C-wave completing the entire IV correction near approximately 51,000–52,000 — marked as the IV low and C/IV on the EWPlans chart
This IV low in early April 2026 established the critical structural base from which the entire V-wave impulse launched. The precision of the A-B-C correction — completing at structurally significant levels — confirms the IV wave's integrity and the validity of the V-wave count that follows.
Wave V — The Five-Wave Impulse from IV Low:
From the IV/C low near 51,000–52,000, the V-wave developed as a five-wave impulse:
Internal wave (i): The initial leg from the IV low, driving NI225 toward approximately 54,000 (labeled as (i) on the chart)
Internal wave (ii): The corrective pullback, finding support near 51,500–52,000 before the most powerful sub-wave began — labeled (ii) on the chart
Internal wave (iii): The most extended and powerful sub-wave, driving NI225 from the (ii) low through the iii/(5) zone near 54,500 and continuing upward toward approximately 68,000–70,000 — labeled (iii) on the chart. This wave covered enormous ground and established the dominant bullish momentum of the V-wave sequence.
Internal wave (iv): The corrective retracement from the (iii) high, pulling NI225 back toward approximately 59,292 — marked as (iv) on the chart. This level now serves as a critical structural reference.
Internal wave (v) — COMPLETE: The terminal wave of the entire V-wave impulse, driving NI225 from the (iv) corrective low all the way to the 3.618 Fibonacci extension at 72,677 — marked as (v) on the EWPlans chart and confirmed as the structural completion point of the entire bullish impulse sequence. Current visible high near 72,831 represents the peak of this terminal wave.
Major Correction — NOW ACTIVE:
With the five-wave V-wave impulse complete at the 3.618 Fibonacci extension of 72,677, a major corrective structure has now launched. Current price at 67,743 is already 5,000+ points below the (v) high, confirming the correction is actively underway.
The corrective targets, defined by Fibonacci retracements of the entire V-wave advance from the IV low to the (v) high, are:
TP → 61,695 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement) — primary corrective target
59,067 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) — deeper corrective scenario
The red arrow on the EWPlans chart projects the corrective decline toward the TP at 61,695, followed by a recovery — suggesting the 0.5 Fibonacci zone is the primary destination for this corrective wave before the next bullish phase begins.
The 3.618 Fibonacci Completion — Why It Matters
The Wave (v) reaching precisely the 3.618 Fibonacci extension at 72,677 is one of the most structurally significant aspects of this NI225 wave count — and it deserves specific attention.
In Elliott Wave analysis, extended fifth waves frequently terminate at Fibonacci extension levels of the larger wave sequence. The 3.618 extension is the highest standard Fibonacci multiple typically associated with terminal wave completions — appearing when the fifth wave is dramatically extended and the entire impulse has covered exceptional ground from its base.
The NI225 V-wave advancing from the IV low near 51,000 to the (v) high near 72,677 covers approximately 21,677 points of advance — a 42% rally from the structural low. For a primary-degree wave sequence, this magnitude of advance concluding at a 3.618 Fibonacci level is entirely consistent with a terminal impulse that is complete and ready to correct.
Key observations supporting the terminal wave reading:
1. Precision at the Fibonacci level. Wave (v) reaching within a tight range of the 3.618 extension at 72,677 — with the high printing at 72,831 — is not coincidental. Fibonacci precision at terminal wave points is a defining characteristic of valid Elliott Wave completions.
2. The (iv) wave prior to (v) was well-defined. The corrective wave (iv) pulling back to 59,292 before the (v) thrust is structurally significant — it reset momentum, provided the platform for the (v) advance, and the (iv) low now stands as a key structural reference for the corrective wave that follows the (v) completion.
3. The magnitude of the (v) advance is consistent with terminal extension. Extended fifth waves in major indices often cover the most dramatic ground in the final leg — the NI225 (v) wave advancing from approximately 59,292 (iv low) to 72,677 covers over 13,000 points. This magnitude of advance into the 3.618 level is characteristic of a terminal impulse.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
The primary Elliott Wave scenario for NI225 is clearly structured: the corrective wave launched from the 72,677 (v) high is targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at 61,695 (TP) as the primary corrective destination, with the 0.618 Fibonacci at 59,067 as the deeper scenario reference.
The corrective structure itself will likely develop as an A-B-C three-wave pattern:
A-wave drives the initial corrective decline toward the 61,695–63,000 zone
B-wave produces a counter-trend recovery rally
C-wave completes the correction near 61,695 (0.5 Fib) or extends toward 59,067 (0.618 Fib)
Once the corrective structure completes near these Fibonacci support zones, the Elliott Wave framework anticipates a new bullish phase launching from those levels — consistent with the red arrow on the EWPlans chart that shows the recovery beginning from the corrective low.
Key structural milestones to monitor:
72,677–72,831: (v) wave high / 3.618 Fibonacci — now key resistance
67,743: Current price — correction actively declining
63,000–64,000: Potential intermediate support zone within the correction
61,695: TP / 0.5 Fibonacci — primary corrective target
59,292: (iv) wave low — structural reference / potential support
59,067: 0.618 Fibonacci — deeper corrective scenario
Strategic Perspective for Traders
The NI225 H4 Elliott Wave setup at this juncture provides a comprehensive framework for navigating Japan's benchmark equity index through what may be its most significant corrective phase of 2026:
1. The 3.618 Fibonacci completion is the highest-reliability terminal signal available. When a five-wave impulse terminates at a standard Fibonacci extension level with precision — as NI225 has at 72,677 — the structural confidence in the corrective thesis is at its highest. This is not a vague "the market might correct" reading; it is a specific Fibonacci-validated terminal wave completion.
2. The 61,695 target (0.5 Fib) is the primary corrective objective. In major equity index Elliott Wave corrections, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is among the most common corrective endpoints — representing a balanced retracement that respects both the corrective need and the overall bullish structural context. The EWPlans chart specifically marks 61,695 as TP — the primary mapped destination.
3. Current price at 67,743 suggests the correction is in its intermediate phase. With approximately 6,048 points of decline required to reach the 0.5 Fibonacci target from current price, and the high already 5,000 points above, the correction still has meaningful distance to cover before reaching the primary structural target. This creates a well-defined structural opportunity for traders who understand the wave context.
4. The recovery from the corrective low is the structural opportunity of the setup. The red arrow on the EWPlans chart shows not just the correction — but the recovery that follows. If the Elliott Wave count is correct, NI225 correcting from 72,677 to 61,695 and then launching a new bullish impulse would represent one of the most significant structural entry opportunities in the Japanese equity market since the March 2026 IV low.
5. BoJ policy and USD/JPY remain the primary macro variables. NI225 has a well-documented inverse correlation with JPY strength. Any Bank of Japan policy shift — particularly unexpected rate hikes that strengthen the yen — would act as a structural accelerant for the corrective wave and could push the decline toward the 0.618 Fibonacci at 59,067. Monitoring BoJ communications alongside the wave count is essential for NI225 participants.
Conclusion — Follow Nikkei's Wave Structure With EWPlans
NI225 has delivered a textbook Elliott Wave five-wave impulse completion at the 3.618 Fibonacci extension — one of the most structurally precise terminal wave readings in global equity markets right now. The correction is active, the 61,695 target defines the primary structural destination, and the recovery that follows the corrective low is the next major setup in the Japanese equity market. The Elliott Wave framework provides the roadmap — and EWPlans delivers that roadmap every single day.
At EWPlans, we publish H4 and D1 Elliott Wave analysis on NI225 and 38 other instruments every single day. Our EWP Nexus-powered wave counts give equity index traders the structural edge to navigate the Nikkei's complex wave landscape with clarity, confidence, and precision.
👉 Get daily wave counts for NI225 and 38 more global instruments — Start Your Analysis at EWPlans.com