USD/CAD Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave iii Hits 2.618 Fibonacci at 1.4304 — Wave iv Pullback Toward 1.4090 Expected
USD/CAD has delivered a precisely structured Elliott Wave bullish advance, with Wave iii reaching the 2.618 Fibonacci extension near 1.43038. A short-term corrective Wave iv is now expected, targeting the 0.382 Fibonacci at 1.40895, before Wave v resumes the broader uptrend. Here is the complete breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is USD/CAD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The c/(y)/2 Structural Low — Near 1.3760:
The chart's left side shows the completion of a large-scale corrective (x)-a-b-c structure, with the c/(y)/2 structural low near 1.3760 in late August — labeled c, (y), and 2 on the EWPlans chart. This marked the foundation for the current bullish advance.
Wave i and the (A)-(B)-(C)/ii Correction:
From the 1.3760 base, Wave i advanced to approximately 1.3950. This was followed by a complex corrective structure — (A)-(B)-(C)/ii — with the (A) and (B) legs developing before the (C)/ii terminal completed near 1.3732, labeled on the chart.
Wave iii — The Most Powerful Advance:
From the ii/(C) low near 1.3732, Wave iii launched along a clear ascending trendline (the green dashed line on the chart), driving USD/CAD to the 2.618 Fibonacci extension at 1.43038 — labeled 2.618 (1.43038) on the EWPlans chart. Current price at 1.42401 indicates the pair is pulling back slightly from this extended target.
Wave iv — NOW EXPECTED:
The red arrow on the EWPlans chart projects a short-term corrective Wave iv, targeting the 0.382 Fibonacci at 1.40895. This is a structurally normal retracement following an extended third wave.
Wave v — THE NEXT MOVE:
Once Wave iv completes near 1.4090, the blue arrow shows Wave v resuming the broader bullish advance.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
Current Phase — Wave iv pullback toward 1.4090:
USD/CAD declines from current price 1.42401 toward the 0.382 Fibonacci at 1.40895.
Next Phase — Wave v resumes:
Once Wave iv completes, Wave v is projected to drive USD/CAD higher again.
Key structural reference points:
1.43038: 2.618 Fibonacci — Wave iii target
1.42935: Wave iii high reference
1.42401: Current price
1.41290: Trendline support reference
1.40895: 0.382 Fibonacci — Wave iv target
1.39398: i wave high reference
1.37319: ii/(C) low — Invalid Level
Strategic Perspective for Traders
1. The 1.4090 zone is the key reference for Wave iv completion. Price behavior here will confirm whether the correction is complete and Wave v is ready to launch.
2. BoC policy and oil prices remain the primary CAD-specific variables. Any BoC hawkish surprise or oil rally could deepen the Wave iv pullback.
3. DXY's own structural advance provides macro support. The Dollar Index's bullish sequence is structurally consistent with the USD/CAD Wave v thesis.
Conclusion — Follow USD/CAD's Wave Structure With EWPlans
USD/CAD has reached the 2.618 Fibonacci target for Wave iii. A short-term Wave iv pullback toward 1.4090 is now expected, setting up Wave v to resume the broader uptrend.
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