XAU/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Second Triangle Resolves Near 4,244 — Wave v Targets 3,703
Gold’s corrective decline from the X/(c) high near 4,696.87 has now produced two consecutive contracting triangles — a structurally significant repeating pattern. With the second triangle resolved near 4,244, Wave v is active, and the EWPlans chart maps an accelerating decline toward the 0.5 Fibonacci at 3,703.69. Here is the complete breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is XAU/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The X/(c) High — 4,696.87:
Gold topped at the X/(c) high near 4,696.87, labeled on the EWPlans chart, with the Invalid Level sitting just above this peak.
First Decline — i-ii-iii-iv-v/(a) and First Triangle:
From the X/(c) high, a five-wave decline (i-ii-iii-iv-v/(a)) unfolded before the first A-B-C-D-E contracting triangle developed: (A)≈4,510, (B)≈4,280, (C)≈4,400, (D)≈4,290, completing at (E) near 4,371.25.
Second Decline — i-ii-iii and Second Triangle:
From the (E) high, a new i-ii-iii decline developed, followed by a second A-B-C-D-E contracting triangle: (A)≈4,244, (B)≈4,110, (C)≈4,244, (D)≈4,110, completing at (E)/iv near 4,244.
Wave v — NOW ACTIVE:
From this second triangle completion, Wave v has launched, with current price at 4,101.96 following a small corrective zigzag. The large curved red arrow on the EWPlans chart projects an accelerating decline through intermediate supports at 4,019.03 and 3,941.75 toward the 0.5 Fibonacci target at 3,703.69.
Why the Repeated Triangle Pattern Matters
The appearance of two consecutive contracting triangles at this stage of the decline is a structurally reinforcing signal — each triangle confirms that only one wave remains following it, and the repetition across the sequence adds confidence to the overall bearish structure toward Wave v.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
Current Phase — Wave v declining toward 3,703:
Gold declines from current price 4,101.96 through:
4,019.03: first intermediate support
3,941.75: second intermediate support, a prior major low
3,703.69: the 0.5 Fibonacci — primary target zone
Key structural reference points:
4,696.87: Invalid Level
4,371.25: First triangle (E) high
4,244.07: Second triangle (E)/iv high — near resistance
4,101.96: Current price
4,019.03 / 3,941.75: Intermediate supports
3,703.69: Wave v target zone
Strategic Perspective for Traders
1. The 4,244 level is the key near-term resistance. A recovery back above it would call the current bearish projection into question.
2. The 4,019 and 3,941.75 levels are the levels to watch for signs of a slowing decline. Price reaction here will help confirm whether Wave v is progressing as mapped or showing signs of exhaustion.
3. Macro drivers matter. Fed communication, dollar direction and geopolitical safe-haven demand can all accelerate or interrupt the decline.
Conclusion — Follow Gold’s Wave Structure With EWPlans
Gold’s second contracting triangle has resolved, and Wave v is active with a structural target toward 3,703. The EWPlans chart maps the levels to watch along the way.
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