XAU/USD Elliott Wave Analysis: Triangle Breakout Activates Wave (c) — Gold Targets ~3,800
Gold's corrective sequence from the X/(c) high has reached a decisive moment. After a five-wave Wave (a) decline and a contracting triangle as Wave (b), price has broken lower and Wave (c) is now active at 4,146.54. The EWPlans chart maps an accelerating decline toward the ~3,800 zone. Here is the complete breakdown.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Where Is XAU/USD Right Now?
Critical Levels and Wave Count
The X/(c) High — 4,687.60:
Gold's rally from the July low near 3,941.75 developed as a wave (a), an a-b-c-d-e contracting triangle as wave (b), and a final wave (c) that completed the X wave at the 0.786 Fibonacci at 4,687.60. The Invalid Level at 4,696.87 sits just above this high.
Wave (a) — Five-Wave Decline (Complete):
From the X/(c) high, Wave (a) declined in a clear i-ii-iii-iv-v sequence to approximately 4,282:
i: initial decline
ii: counter-trend bounce
iii: the most powerful drop
iv: corrective bounce
v: terminal low near 4,282
Wave (b) — Contracting Triangle (Complete):
Wave (b) developed as an A-B-C-D-E contracting triangle with converging trendlines:
(A): ≈4,510
(B): ≈4,235
(C): ≈4,395
(D): ≈4,245
(E): ≈4,315 — the triangle's terminal high
The Breakout and Wave (c):
From the (E) high near 4,315, price broke below the triangle's lower boundary and through the 4,282 (a) low. Wave (c) is now active, with price at 4,146.54. The curved red arrow on the EWPlans chart shows an accelerating decline toward approximately 3,800.
Why the Triangle Breakout Matters
1. Triangles in the (b) position tend to precede a directional (c). A contracting triangle as wave (b) is a recognised corrective form, and a downside break is consistent with wave (c) unfolding in the direction of the larger correction.
2. The break of 4,282 is structurally significant. The (a) low had acted as support; losing it confirms the triangle resolved to the downside rather than failing.
3. (c) waves are typically the most impulsive corrective leg. Wave (c) usually subdivides into five waves and can travel faster and further than traders expect.
Expected Scenario and Potential Moves
Current Phase — Wave (c) declining:
4,019.03: first structural support — a hold or bounce here would suggest (c) may be maturing
3,941.75: the prior major low — a decisive break below keeps the ~3,800 zone in play
~3,800: the target zone shown on the EWPlans chart
Alternative: Support at 4,019 or 3,941 could produce a bounce and an earlier (c) completion. An H4 close above 4,696.87 would invalidate the count entirely.
Key structural reference points:
4,696.87: Invalid Level
4,687.60: X/(c) high, 0.786 Fibonacci
4,315.63: (E) triangle high — resistance
4,282.56: (a) low — now resistance
4,146.54: Current price
4,019.03: Structural support
3,941.75: Major prior low
~3,800: Wave (c) target zone
Strategic Perspective for Traders
1. The key levels are 4,019 and 3,941.75. Price reaction at these levels will indicate whether (c) is nearing completion or extending toward 3,800.
2. The (E) high near 4,315 is now the near-term structural ceiling. A recovery back above it would call the breakout into question.
3. The Invalid Level at 4,696.87 is far above price. The count remains valid unless price reclaims the X/(c) high, so risk reference points are clearly defined.
4. Macro drivers matter. Fed communication, dollar direction and geopolitical safe-haven demand can all accelerate or interrupt the decline. Combine the wave count with macro context.
Conclusion — Follow Gold's Wave Structure With EWPlans
Gold's triangle has resolved lower and Wave (c) is active. The EWPlans chart maps an accelerating decline toward ~3,800, with 4,019 and 3,941.75 as the levels to watch. The wave map defines the structure, the key levels and the invalidation point.
At EWPlans, we publish H4 and D1 Elliott Wave analysis on XAU/USD and 38 other instruments every single day. Our EWP Nexus-powered wave counts give traders the structural clarity to navigate corrective phases as they develop.
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